# Coherent: orders full through 2027, free cash flow negative $1 billion, and a price that needs 28% growth a year COHR, NYSE. Published October 23, 2026. Price as of the October 22, 2026 regular session close. ## Verdict: REDUCE at $207.82 Coherent is a leader in the optics that connect AI data centers, with demand it cannot fully serve. But the shares, 53% below their high, still trade 95% above the Base value, and even the Bull value is 2.3% below the price. The buy zone starts at $58.50. - Bear value: $54.17 - Base value: $106.37 - Bull value: $203.10 - Downside to base value: -48.8% - Maximum buy price: $58.50 - Required margin of safety: 45% - Probability-weighted value: $117.50 (25/50/25) - Growth implied by the price: about 28% revenue growth a year for five years (Base 11.7%) - Mid-cycle EBITDA implied by the price at 11x: about $4.0 billion (Base $2.4 billion) - Dividend: none - Business quality: 57/100 - Valuation score: 12/100 - Confidence: 13/25, grade C In fiscal 2026 Coherent grew revenue 22.5%, spent $1.10 billion on capital equipment, added $1.18 billion of inventory and generated negative $1.02 billion of free cash flow. Management says orders for fiscal 2027 are almost full and customers have started placing orders for 2028. The shares are 53% below their 52-week high of $440 and fell 12.5% on October 22 alone. The question is whether a sold-out order book that burns cash is worth $42 billion. At $207.82 on October 22, 2026, the shares trade 95.4% above my triangulated Base value of $106.37, a downside of 48.8% to Base. The Bull value of $203.10 is 2.3% below the price and the Bear value of $54.17 is 73.9% below it. The required margin of safety of 45% puts the maximum buy price at $58.50. For existing holders the framework verdict is to reduce. New money should wait. First-quarter results arrive on November 4, after the close. Valuation route: Industrials and electronic components, applied to a vertically integrated maker of indium phosphide lasers, optical transceivers and materials. Economic classification: Quality Growth (5/12). Two methods carry equal weight: mid-cycle EV to normalized adjusted EBITDA, built up from growth, balance sheet, contract and risk components, and a ten-year cash flow model. Reference checks: historical and peer multiples, and a reverse calculation of what the price assumes. Values are present fair-value estimates, not 12-month price targets. ## What Coherent is Coherent makes lasers, optical components and the transceivers that convert electrical signals to light inside AI data centers, plus materials and industrial lasers. Its Datacenter and Communications segment was $1.615 billion of the $2.046 billion of revenue in the June quarter, 79%, and 74% of fiscal 2026. The Industrial segment, $430.5 million in the quarter, is shrinking. The business has changed from an industrial laser company into an AI supplier whose binding constraint is indium phosphide, the material for the lasers inside every transceiver. Management says transceiver assembly is no longer the limit and indium phosphide supply is, and that capacity doubles year on year by the end of the September quarter and more than doubles again by the end of calendar 2027. Concentration is high: two customers each contributed more than 10% of fiscal 2026 revenue, and the 10-K does not name them or give percentages. About 87% of the 51,000 employees are in Asia-Pacific. ## The latest quarter | Q4 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) | Result | | --- | --- | | Revenue | $2.046 billion, up 33.8%; Datacenter and Communications $1.615 billion, up 58.6%; Industrial $430.5 million, down 15.8% | | Gross margin | 40.2% non-GAAP (38.5% GAAP), up from 38.1% | | Operating margin | 21.8% non-GAAP, 12.4% GAAP | | GAAP / non-GAAP EPS | $1.19 / $1.74 (prior year a loss of $0.83 / $1.00) | | Capital spending | $556 million in the quarter, against $131 million a year earlier | | Fiscal 2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow $79.5 million, capital spending $1,102.9 million, free cash flow negative $1,023.4 million | | Inventory | $2.58 billion, up 79.5% in a year, on $7.12 billion of annual revenue | | Debt and cash | Debt $3.22 billion; cash and short-term investments $1.99 billion; net debt $1.24 billion | | Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance | Revenue $2.2 to $2.4 billion; non-GAAP gross margin 39.5% to 41.5%; non-GAAP EPS $1.85 to $2.05 | Revenue was $3.317 billion in fiscal 2022, $5.160 billion in 2023, $4.708 billion in 2024, $5.810 billion in 2025 and $7.118 billion in 2026. Consensus expects $10.63 billion in fiscal 2027, up 49%, and non-GAAP EPS of $9.42. Management has set a goal of more than $3 billion of revenue in a single quarter by the end of fiscal 2027. ## Why the current earnings are not the whole story The first reason is cash. Over fiscal 2026 the company turned $7.1 billion of revenue into $79.5 million of operating cash flow, because receivables rose $368 million, inventory $1.18 billion and payables only partly financed the difference. Capital spending then took $1.10 billion. Free cash flow for the year was negative $1.02 billion, against positive $192.8 million in fiscal 2025. Consensus expects negative $704 million in fiscal 2027. A company that grows this fast and earns this much on paper has not yet shown that the growth converts to cash. The second is the adjustments. Non-GAAP EPS for fiscal 2026 was $5.61 against GAAP EPS of $4.12, a gap of 36%, made of $280 million of amortization of acquired intangibles, $194 million of stock compensation, restructuring and impairments, partly offset by gains on the sale of businesses and an investment. The framework counts stock compensation as a real cost, and so do I. The third is the margin story. Gross margin has risen in 8 of the last 9 quarters, and management targets above 42%, but it also said lower-margin transceiver volumes are ramping fast, and 1.6-terabit transceivers, optical circuit switching, co-packaged optics and 6-inch wafers are all scaling at once. Management itself says most of these growth products have not yet ramped. ## Balance sheet and shares Total debt is $3.22 billion, including a $1.25 billion Term A loan taken in fiscal 2026 and 5.000% senior notes due 2029; the 10-K excerpt available to me does not itemize amounts. Debt fell by $465 million in the year. Interest expense was $190.3 million for fiscal 2026 and $41.1 million in the fourth quarter, a run rate of about $164 million. Leverage fell from 2.0x to 0.7x on management's measure. Cash and short-term investments are $1.99 billion, plus $606 million of restricted cash whose purpose I could not verify. Shares outstanding rose 26% in a year to 195.8 million, after a $2.0 billion common stock issuance and the conversion of Series B preferred stock (the mezzanine equity line fell from $2.48 billion to zero). I use 202.2 million diluted shares, the fourth-quarter figure, for a market value of $42.0 billion. Minority partners hold $334.7 million of equity in subsidiaries; I treat it as a claim at book value, a floor, and hold back $250 million of cash as an operating reserve. Net financial claims in the model are $1.82 billion and enterprise value is about $43.8 billion. Goodwill and intangibles are $7.26 billion, 40% of total assets of $18.3 billion. On trailing figures the enterprise value is 25.8 times my calculation of fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.70 billion (non-GAAP operating income of $1,457 million plus about $242 million of depreciation). On my estimate of fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $2.9 billion ($10.6 billion of revenue, a 23% non-GAAP operating margin and about 4.5% depreciation) it is 15.0 times. ### Cash flow in three levels The interest bill, about $190 million, was 70% of the company's pre-financing operating cash flow in fiscal 2026, so deducting interest alone would not be a safe check. For the Base case in fiscal 2028: | Base case, fiscal 2028 | Amount | | --- | --- | | Cash flow before financing (after tax, capital spending and working capital) | about $397 million | | After interest of about $170 million, taxed at 19% | about $259 million | | After scheduled debt repayment of $8 million | about $251 million | Fiscal 2027 is a cash outflow year in the Base (about $650 million before financing), which takes net debt from $1.24 billion today to about $2.0 billion, or 0.7 times fiscal 2027 EBITDA, at the end of the year, and back to about $1.8 billion a year later. Leverage is not the problem; the cash conversion is. The valuation uses cash flow before financing and subtracts net debt, which is consistent with that path. ## Valuation: two methods, equal weight The first method is mid-cycle EV to normalized adjusted EBITDA. The second is a ten-year cash flow model on cash flow after stock compensation, capital spending and working capital. Each runs through Bear, Base and Bull and each gets half the weight. | Scenario | Normalized EBITDA | EV to EBITDA | Multiple method | Cash flow model | Weighted value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bear | $1.7 billion | 10x | $75.07 | $33.27 | $54.17 | | Base | $2.4 billion | 11x | $121.56 | $91.17 | $106.37 | | Bull | $3.2 billion | 15x | $228.39 | $177.82 | $203.10 | The Base normalized EBITDA of $2.4 billion is 41% above fiscal 2026 ($1.70 billion) and 18% below my fiscal 2027 estimate ($2.9 billion). That is the central judgment of this analysis: that an AI optics cycle with this much capacity being built should be valued on mid-cycle earnings, not on the best year of the cycle, and that the capacity being added will pull margins down over time. **Why 11x.** The multiple is built up, not picked from a tier: a sector base of 10x, plus 3.0x for growth, 0.5x for the balance sheet and 0.5x for long-term supply agreements with minimum volumes, minus 1.5x for dilution (shares up 26%) and 1.5x for concentration and capital intensity. I add no premium for return on capital, which a screener puts at 6.9%. At 11x on $2.4 billion, the enterprise value of $26.4 billion is a normalized cash flow yield of about 4.0%, which at a 10.5% discount rate pays for perpetual growth of about 6.2%. That is more than the Base's operating assumptions imply (2.5% terminal growth), which is why the cash flow model comes out lower. The cash flow model starts with a fiscal 2027 outflow of $650 million, then grows revenue 18%, 14%, 11%, 9%, 7%, 5%, 4%, 3.5%, 3% and 2.5% from $10.6 billion, reaching $22.0 billion in fiscal 2037. EBITDA after stock compensation begins at 26.5% of revenue and fades to 23%. Capital spending falls from 14% of revenue to 8%, against depreciation of 6%. Working capital takes 35 cents of each new revenue dollar at first, falling to 20 cents. It uses a 10.5% discount rate, reflecting a beta above 2, a 19% cash tax rate, and 2.5% terminal growth. Terminal value is 54.1% of Base enterprise value. ## Common basis and why the two methods differ | Base case | Cash flow model | Multiple method | | --- | --- | --- | | Enterprise value | $20.25 billion | $26.40 billion | | Implied EV to normalized EBITDA | 8.4x | 11.0x | | Net financial claims (including minority equity) | $1.82 billion | $1.82 billion | | Equity value | $18.43 billion | $24.58 billion | | Value per share (202.2 million diluted) | $91.17 | $121.56 | The gap is $6.15 billion of enterprise value, or $30.39 a share, and it comes from one place: how much the business must reinvest to grow. The multiple method implicitly pays for about 6.2% growth forever; the cash flow model charges for the capital spending and working capital that growth consumes, then settles at 2.5% growth and an exit at 6.3 times year-ten EBITDA. The divergence is 28.6%, close to the framework's 30% flag and inside its warning band of 20% to 30%. ## Historical and peer cross-check On trailing GAAP earnings of $4.12 a share the stock trades at 50.4x, 61% above its ten-year median of 31.3x from a data provider. On fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $5.61 it is 37.0x, and on consensus non-GAAP EPS of $9.42 for fiscal 2027 it is 22.1x. A screener PEG ratio of 0.4 is a diagnostic only, because the growth is cyclical and the share count has risen 26%. Free cash flow growth cannot be measured: it was $192.8 million in fiscal 2025 and negative $1.02 billion in 2026. | Peer reference | Coherent | Lumentum | Ciena | Fabrinet | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EV to EBITDA | 30.2x | 83.8x | 45.1x | 19.8x | | Forward P/E | 22.1x | 35.7x | 31.0x | 17.4x | | Operating margin | 12.7% | 17.8% | 14.1% | 10.0% | | Return on invested capital | 6.9% | 16.0% | 22.0% | 26.8% | Figures are from a third-party data provider on October 22 and 23, 2026, on trailing EBITDA and operating margin. Ciena and Fabrinet fell about 11% on October 22, the same day as Coherent, and I did not find one confirmed cause; a third-party article on October 14 attributed an earlier leg of the optical sell-off to AI funding fears. Coherent is cheaper than Lumentum and Ciena on these multiples. That tells you what the sector trades at, not what it is worth: the whole group is priced for the build-out continuing. ## Valuation triangulation | Method | Base value | Weight | | --- | --- | --- | | Mid-cycle EV to EBITDA at 11x | $121.56 | 50% | | Ten-year cash flow model | $91.17 | 50% | | Triangulated Base | $106.37 | 100% | Divergence is 28.6% in the Base case and 24.9% in the Bull case. In the Bear case it is 77.2%, far above the framework's 30% flag, because net financial claims of $1.82 billion are a large share of a Bear enterprise value of $8.5 billion to $17 billion. Read the Bear as a range of $33 to $75 rather than a point. Terminal value is 47.4%, 54.1% and 59.4% of enterprise value in the Bear, Base and Bull cash flow models, so the result depends on what the business earns after the build-out ends. ## What is the market already pricing in? Run the cash flow model backwards and the price needs revenue to grow about **29% a year for four years** from the fiscal 2027 level and fade slowly after that, reaching roughly $37 billion in fiscal 2032, a compound rate of about 28% a year, against $18.5 billion in the Base (11.7% a year). Put differently, Base cash flows would have to be 2.2 times higher every year. At 11x, the price implies mid-cycle EBITDA of about **$4.0 billion**, against $2.4 billion in the Base and $2.9 billion for my fiscal 2027 estimate. At 15x, the Bull multiple, it implies $2.9 billion: the market is paying 15 times this year's estimated EBITDA. If the Base cash flows play out and the shares are bought at $207.82, the return on the enterprise is about 1.5% a year, far short of the 10.5% required. ## Bear, base and bull scenarios | | Bear | Base | Bull | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Probability | 25% | 50% | 25% | | Fiscal 2027 revenue | $9.8 billion | $10.6 billion | $11.0 billion | | Fiscal 2028 revenue | $8.8 billion | $12.5 billion | $13.8 billion | | Normalized EBITDA | $1.7 billion | $2.4 billion | $3.2 billion | | EV to EBITDA | 10x | 11x | 15x | | Discount rate | 11% | 10.5% | 9.5% | | Value per share | $54.17 | $106.37 | $203.10 | | vs $207.82 | -73.9% | -48.8% | -2.3% | **Bear:** AI infrastructure funding tightens, orders digest the capacity just built, revenue falls 10% in fiscal 2028 and then grows 2% to 3%, margins settle near 20%, and customers push back on price. I cut capital spending and trim the multiple by one turn, and raise the discount rate by half a point; I do not model inventory write-downs, which would be worse. **Base:** the build-out continues but growth fades from 18% toward the pace of the economy, with margins easing from 26.5% to 23% as capacity catches up. **Bull:** orders keep outrunning supply, revenue passes $28 billion by fiscal 2037, margins stay above 25% and the market keeps paying 15 times EBITDA. The probability-weighted value is **$117.50**, 43.5% below the price. ### Sensitivity: multiple method, value per share | Normalized EBITDA \ Multiple | 9x | 11x | 13x | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $2.0 billion | $80.02 | $99.80 | $119.59 | | $2.4 billion | $97.82 | $121.56 | $145.30 | | $2.9 billion | $120.08 | $148.76 | $177.45 | No cell in the table reaches today's price, even $2.9 billion of EBITDA, my estimate for fiscal 2027, at 13 times. ### Sensitivity: cash flow model, value per share | Discount rate \ Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8% | $137.37 | $145.43 | $155.10 | | 9% | $113.40 | $118.65 | $124.79 | | 10.5% | $88.16 | $91.17 | $94.58 | | 12% | $70.64 | $72.48 | $74.53 | | 13% | $61.68 | $63.05 | $64.55 | No cell reaches the price. Even an 8% discount rate with 3% terminal growth gives $155.10. ## How the buy price is set Confidence C starts at a 35% margin of safety. Five points are added for the cyclicality and operating leverage of AI optics and five for customer concentration, for 45%. A 45% discount to the $106.37 Base gives a **maximum buy price of $58.50**. Applied to each method separately, the same margin gives $50.14 for the cash flow model and $66.86 for the multiple method. Each risk is priced in one layer: | Risk | Where it is priced | | --- | --- | | AI demand cycle | Bear scenario cash flows; the five-point margin of safety covers a downturn deeper or earlier than the Bear | | Customer concentration | Margin of safety only (five points); the scenarios do not model losing a customer | | Capital intensity and cash conversion | Scenario cash flows and the discount rate; no margin of safety | | Leverage and refinancing | Net financial claims; leverage is low, so no separate charge | | Dependence on terminal value (54%) | Confidence score, valuation robustness; no margin of safety | | Method divergence and data opacity | Confidence score, not the margin of safety | ## Dividend Coherent pays no dividend on its common shares. Dividends on the Series B preferred stock were $35.1 million in fiscal 2026, and the preferred has since converted. Cash goes to capital spending. Income is not a thesis driver. ## Reasons to own COHR - **Demand it cannot serve.** Management says fiscal 2027 orders are almost full, bookings extend through calendar 2027, purchase orders for 2028 have started and long-term agreements run to the end of the decade with some minimum volumes. - **A scarce input.** Indium phosphide laser capacity is the bottleneck for AI transceivers, and Coherent makes its own lasers, with output up about 80% in the June quarter. - **Rising margins.** Gross margin up in 8 of the last 9 quarters, and non-GAAP operating margin guided to about 23% for the September quarter. - **Growth platforms to come.** Optical circuit switching, co-packaged optics and multi-track products have yet to contribute meaningful revenue. - **A repaired balance sheet.** Leverage down from 2.0x to 0.7x in a year. ## What could go wrong? - **Valuation.** The price needs revenue growth of about 28% a year for five years, and every scenario in this analysis sits below it. - **Cash burn.** Free cash flow was negative $1.02 billion in fiscal 2026 and consensus has negative $704 million for 2027. - **Inventory.** $2.58 billion, up 79.5%, on 36% of annual revenue. A demand pause would turn it into write-downs. - **AI funding.** Customers build capacity on borrowed and raised money; optical stocks have fallen several times this year on funding fears. - **Customer concentration.** Two unnamed customers exceed 10% of revenue each. - **Execution on many fronts.** 1.6-terabit transceivers, 6-inch wafers in three countries, optical switching and co-packaged optics ramping at once. - **Dilution.** Shares up 26% in a year. - **Accounting presentation.** Non-GAAP EPS is 36% above GAAP, and $606 million of restricted cash is unexplained. - **Industrial weakness.** The industrial segment fell 15.8% in the quarter. ## Management execution Management has beaten its guidance, raised margins and cut leverage, and I give it credit for all three. It describes demand as exceptional, and calls capacity expansion the priority; on the call it cited an approximate 18-month payback on data center investment, which, if true, would make the cash burn temporary. It also did not give a fiscal 2027 capital spending figure or a free cash flow outlook. Capital allocation has been aggressive: $1.10 billion of capital spending, $2.0 billion of new equity and a 26% rise in the share count in one year. I have not seen a call transcript, only coverage of it. Management and capital allocation scores **6/10**. ## Stock Analyza scorecard | Business quality | Score | | --- | --- | | Moat | 14/20 | | Economic return | 8/20 | | Balance sheet | 11/15 | | Cash flow quality | 3/15 | | Growth and runway | 14/15 | | Management and capital allocation | 6/10 | | Dilution and governance | 1/5 | | Total | 57/100 | The valuation score is **12/100**: every method and every scenario, including the Bull, sits below the price. | Economic classification | Points | | --- | --- | | Normalized return | 0/2 | | Revenue growth | 2/2 | | FCF per share growth | 0/2 | | Balance sheet | 1/1 | | Unit economics | 0/1 | | Repeat economics | 1/2 | | Reinvestment runway | 1/2 | | Quality Growth | 5/12 | ## Confidence score | Confidence | Score | | --- | --- | | Data quality | 3/5 | | Predictability | 2/5 | | Valuation robustness | 3/5 | | Accounting transparency | 3/5 | | Scenario dispersion | 2/5 | | Total | 13/25, grade C | A grade of C is the lowest this analysis can earn without a no-buy conclusion: one point lower would make it D. ## What I would watch from here ### Green - Quarterly revenue above $2.3 billion and non-GAAP gross margin above 40.5% - Capital spending flat or falling from $556 million with free cash flow improving - Inventory growing slower than revenue - Customer concentration disclosed and diversifying - Share count roughly flat ### Yellow - Quarterly revenue of $2.0 to $2.3 billion, gross margin of 38% to 40.5% - Capital spending rising again with inventory growing as fast as revenue - Free cash flow still negative but narrowing - Share count up 0% to 3% ### Red - Quarterly revenue below $2.0 billion or gross margin below 38% - Inventory growing faster than revenue, write-downs, or order cancellations - Free cash flow worse than negative $500 million in a quarter - New equity or convertible issuance beyond 3% of shares The next review point is first-quarter results on November 4, 2026, after the close, with the call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Guidance is revenue of $2.2 to $2.4 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 39.5% to 41.5%, operating expenses of $400 to $420 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85 to $2.05. Management expects capital spending to rise again in the quarter. ## The three most important thesis breakers 1. A pause in AI data center spending that leaves Coherent with inventory and capacity bought for demand that does not arrive. 2. Gross margins falling back as capacity catches up with demand and lower-margin transceivers dominate the mix. 3. Free cash flow staying negative into fiscal 2028, forcing more borrowing or share issuance. ## Stress test and independent check The whole model was recomputed separately in high-precision arithmetic and matched to the cent. Three judgments were tested because they move the answer. The fiscal 2027 cash outflow is not material: at negative $1.0 billion the Base cash flow value is $89.50, at negative $300 million $92.84. Minority equity at book value and the $250 million cash reserve each move the Base by less than $2. Capital spending matters far more: two percentage points of revenue in every year moves the value from $91 to $72 or $110. The strongest counter-argument is that the market is not using a 10.5% discount rate for the company that makes the scarcest component of the AI build-out, that the capital spending is growth capital with an 18-month payback, and that the cash flow model charges today's heavy reinvestment against tomorrow's growth. At an 8% discount rate and the Bull operating path the cash flow value is $241, above the price. That is a legitimate view, and it requires the Bull scenario and a much lower required return at the same time. | Robustness test (cash flow model) | Value per share | | --- | --- | | Base | $91.17 | | Tax rate 23% | $84.24 | | Working capital 10% of incremental revenue | $98.02 | | Working capital 40% of incremental revenue | $83.86 | | Capital spending 2 points of revenue lower in every year | $110.43 | | Capital spending 2 points higher in every year | $71.91 | | All margins 3 points higher | $114.57 | | All margins 3 points lower | $67.77 | | Cash flows 20% higher in every year | $111.20 | | Consensus fiscal 2027 revenue of $10.63 billion with margins 1.5 points higher | $107.04 | | Bull operating path with an 8% discount rate and 3% terminal growth | $241.30 | Only the combination of the Bull operating path and a discount rate of 8% clears the price. Main data limits: the 10-K financial statement notes (debt by instrument, customer percentages, restricted cash, total depreciation) were not available to me, second-half cash flow guidance and a capital spending figure for fiscal 2027 were not given, and the first quarter has not been reported. ## Final verdict: reduce at $207.82 Coherent is a high-quality franchise at the center of the AI optics boom, but the framework does not allow a cycle in which every dollar of growth is still being financed to be capitalized as permanent. At $207.82 the price already assumes the Bull case. **Verdict: REDUCE at $207.82, WATCHLIST for new money. Triangulated Base value $106.37, downside 48.8%, Confidence C (13/25). Required margin of safety 45%, maximum buy price $58.50.** For an existing holder, trimming after a 53% fall from the high still sells above every value in this analysis, while free cash flow remains negative. New money waits for $58.50 or below, or for evidence that capacity spending is peaking and cash flow turns positive without a drop in margins. The main thesis breaker is a pause in AI data center spending while the shares still discount years of acceleration. ## More analyses on Patreon This analysis is free. Premium members get every in-depth analysis, the full archive and a vote on which stocks get analyzed next: https://www.patreon.com/stockanalyza ## Sources Primary sources include Coherent's [fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000820318/000119312526346860/d128030dex991.htm) and the fiscal 2026 [Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000820318/000082031826000020/iivi-20260630.htm). Earnings call coverage, consensus estimates, historical multiples, peer multiples, financial history and the market price come from third-party sources and data providers. The reference market price is $207.82, the October 22, 2026 regular session close. Balance sheet figures are as of June 30, 2026. **Disclaimer.** This analysis is provided solely for research and educational purposes. It is not personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Values are estimates, not forecasts or trading instructions. Coherent is exposed to AI infrastructure cycles, customer concentration, capital intensity and valuation risk. Investors can lose part or all of their invested capital. Method: Master Investment Analysis Framework v3.5. Approach: Mid-cycle EV to EBITDA and a ten-year cash flow model at equal weight, with reverse and peer checks. Confidence: C/13. Data checks: passed with warnings. Open data gaps: debt by instrument, customer percentages, restricted cash, total depreciation, the fiscal 2027 capital spending plan, and the first-quarter results due November 4.