# Enbridge keeps about C$4.3 billion a year after its dividend and can invest up to C$11 billion ENB, NYSE (also TSX). Published November 12, 2026. Price as of the November 12, 2026 regular session, 3:01 pm ET (live quote, not a closing price). Values are in US dollars unless marked C$; the model runs in Canadian dollars and converts at C$1.41 per US dollar. Latest reported quarter: July to September 2026, released on November 6, 2026. ## Verdict: HOLD at $48.22 At $48.22 Enbridge trades within 1% of my Base value of $47.77, and the Base earns about 9.5% a year over five years: a fair return, not a discount. With confidence at C the required margin of safety is 42.5%, so new money waits for $27.47 or less. Existing holders keep a 5.7% dividend and a 5% growth plan that the price already assumes. - Bear value: $38.03 - Base value: $47.77 - Bull value: $54.74 - Upside to base value: -0.9% - Maximum buy price: $27.47 - Required margin of safety: 42.5% - Enterprise value / 2026 guided adjusted EBITDA: 13.3x - Dividend yield (C$3.88 a year): 5.7% - 2026 DCF per share guidance: C$5.70 to C$6.10 - Net debt, September 30, 2026: C$109.4 billion - Business quality: 60/100 - Valuation score: 42.5/100 - Confidence: 17.5/25, grade C Enbridge expects to earn C$5.70 to C$6.10 of distributable cash flow per share this year, the cash left after interest, taxes and maintenance spending, and pays out C$3.88 of it. That leaves about C$4.3 billion a year in the business, against room to invest C$10 billion to C$11 billion. The difference comes from debt, from partners and, on September 14, from 44.7 million new shares sold for C$3.0 billion, or about C$67 each. The stock trades at C$68 today. My Base value is $47.77 a share, the Bear value $38.03 and the Bull value $54.74. The price of $48.22 sits almost exactly on the Base. At that price the Base case returns about 9.5% a year over five years, made of a 5.7% dividend yield, 5% yearly growth in cash flow per share and a slightly lower valuation multiple at the end. That is a decent return for a business this predictable, and it is what the price already offers. The required margin of safety is 42.5%, so the buy price is $27.47. The verdict is Hold. Valuation route: large pipeline and gas utility group, valued with a model of dividends plus an exit price at the Canadian cost of equity (8.5%), cross-checked with enterprise value over EBITDA after preferred shares and minorities. Because its debt is high, the model follows cash flow from the company to the shareholder. Values are present fair-value estimates, not 12-month price targets. The price is a live quote, so a closing price on November 12 may differ slightly. ## What Enbridge is Enbridge runs four businesses: liquids pipelines, natural gas transmission, gas utilities and renewable power. The Mainline moved 3.1 million barrels a day in 2025 and was apportioned (shippers asked for more space than existed) for nine months of the year. In 2024 it bought three US gas utilities from Dominion Energy, which made it the largest gas utility in North America. It has over 8 gigawatts of renewable power, with more than 2 gigawatts under construction. The company says it has met its financial guidance for 20 years in a row and has raised its dividend for 31 years in a row. The secured growth backlog is about C$38 billion, after C$14 billion of projects were approved in 2025 and C$1 billion was added in the third quarter. This autumn it also agreed or closed about US$3.6 billion of purchases: Tallgrass crude oil assets for US$2.55 billion (waiting for regulatory approval), Salt Creek Midstream for US$0.6 billion (closed October 9) and Laramie Energy assets for US$485 million (expected to close in the fourth quarter). KKR and Apollo are buying into the Westcoast gas business, with about C$0.7 billion paid and C$2.0 billion more committed through 2028. ## The latest results | C$ millions | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | 9M 2026 | 9M 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Adjusted EBITDA | 4,434 | 4,267 | 15,020 | 14,739 | | Adjusted earnings | 1,074 | 997 | 4,586 | 4,657 | | Adjusted earnings per share, C$ | 0.49 | 0.46 | 2.10 | 2.14 | | GAAP earnings per share, C$ | 0.59 | 0.30 | 2.00 | 2.34 | | Distributable cash flow (DCF) | 2,689 | 2,566 | 9,488 | 9,246 | | Weighted average shares, millions | 2,192 | 2,181 | 2,186 | 2,180 | | DCF per share, C$ (my arithmetic) | 1.23 | 1.18 | 4.34 | 4.24 | | Cash from operations | 2,703 | 2,868 | 9,156 | 9,159 | | Maintenance capital | 231 | 303 | 676 | 848 | Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, as adjusted by the company) grew 3.9% in the quarter and only 1.9% in nine months. DCF per share grew 4.3% in the quarter and 2.3% in nine months, and adjusted earnings per share are 1.9% lower than a year ago. Maintenance capital is down 20% in nine months, which explains C$172 million of the C$242 million gain in DCF. That may be timing rather than a lasting saving. Cash from operations is flat at C$9.16 billion. Guidance was reaffirmed: adjusted EBITDA of C$20.2 billion to C$20.8 billion and DCF per share of C$5.70 to C$6.10. To reach my C$5.80 the fourth quarter needs about C$3.25 billion of DCF against C$3.21 billion a year ago, which is plausible because the gas utilities earn most in winter. Debt to EBITDA, the company's own measure, rose to 5.1 times from 4.8 times at the end of 2025 and is described as slightly above target. ## Distributable cash flow DCF is the metric Enbridge manages to and the one its dividend is measured against. Broadly, it is adjusted EBITDA less maintenance capital, interest, current taxes, preferred dividends and payments to minority holders, so it is a cash figure after the cost of the debt that funds growth. It is not free cash flow, because it ignores growth spending, which is where the debt goes. | C$ millions | 2024 | 2025 | 9M 2025 | 9M 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Adjusted EBITDA | 18,620 | 19,952 | 14,739 | 15,020 | | Distributable cash flow (DCF) | 11,991 | 12,454 | 9,246 | 9,488 | | Cash from operations | 12,600 | 12,270 | 9,159 | 9,156 | | Weighted average shares, millions | 2,155 | 2,180 | 2,180 | 2,186 | | DCF per share, C$ | 5.56 | 5.71 | 4.24 | 4.34 | DCF per share grew 2.7% in 2025 and the 2026 guidance midpoint implies 3.3%. EBITDA grew faster, 7% in 2025, because interest, new shares and utility acquisitions took their share. This matters for the valuation: the company targets about 5% a year in EBITDA, earnings and DCF per share after 2026, above what DCF per share has delivered recently. I use 5% in the Base because the projects placed in service in 2025 and 2026 are real, but it is the assumption I trust least, and the Bear case uses 2.5%, close to the recent record. ## Debt, shares and capital allocation | C$ millions, September 30, 2026 | Amount | | --- | --- | | Short-term borrowings | 1,534 | | Current portion of long-term debt | 7,406 | | Long-term debt | 105,343 | | Less cash and equivalents | -4,898 | | Net debt | 109,385 | | Preferred shares | 6,818 | | Noncontrolling interests, including redeemable | 4,134 | | Claims ahead of common shareholders | 120,337 | Net debt is C$109.4 billion, plus C$6.8 billion of preferred shares and C$4.1 billion of minority interests, so C$120.3 billion of claims stand ahead of common shareholders. The share count is 2,228.9 million as of October 30, up from 2,155 million weighted in 2024 (3.4% more in two years). Cash of C$4.9 billion is up from C$1.1 billion at the end of 2025. I do not add the US$3.0 billion for Tallgrass and Laramie to debt or their income to EBITDA, because the EBITDA they bring is not disclosed and the price paid should roughly match what the assets are worth. One gap I cannot close: adjusted EBITDA includes the company's share of joint venture earnings, but the debt inside those ventures is not in the net debt figure. Peers that report this way have the same effect, which is why I use a market multiple for the secondary method, but it is an open accounting point. The funding arithmetic shows why leverage and the share count are the story. | Run rate on 2,229 million shares, C$ billions | Amount | | --- | --- | | DCF at C$5.80 a share (my Base for 2026) | 12.93 | | Common dividend at C$3.88 a share | 8.65 | | Kept in the business | 4.28 | | Growth investment capacity, midpoint of C$10 to C$11 | 10.50 | | Gap to fund | 6.22 | | New debt that 5% EBITDA growth supports at about 5 times | 5.12 | | Left for partners, asset sales or shares | 1.10 | If EBITDA grows 5% and the company keeps debt at about 5 times EBITDA, new borrowing covers most of the gap and about C$1.1 billion a year must come from partners, asset sales or shares. The September share sale was larger than that, which is why I read it as a one-off tied to the acquisitions. If equity raises become routine, the 5% plan is not achievable per share, and the Bear case is the better guide. ## Primary valuation: dividends plus an exit price I value a share as the dividends it pays over five years plus the price it should sell for at the end of 2031, discounted at 8.5% (a Canadian 10-year yield of about 3.7% plus a 4.8 point equity premium, my assumption). The dividend starts at C$3.88 and grows 3% a year, in line with the 2026 raise. The exit price is DCF per share in 2031 times a multiple of 11 in the Base. Today's multiple is 11.7 times, so the Base assumes a small decline, which I justify below. | Case | DCF per share growth | Exit multiple of DCF | PV of dividends | PV of exit price | Value per share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bear | 2.5% | 9.5x | C$16.18 | C$41.46 | C$57.64 ($40.88) | | Base | 5.0% | 11.0x | C$16.64 | C$54.15 | C$70.79 ($50.21) | | Bull | 6.5% | 12.0x | C$16.88 | C$63.42 | C$80.29 ($56.95) | The Base exit price is C$81.43 in 2031, from DCF per share of C$7.40. The exit accounts for 76% of the Base value (Bear 72%, Bull 79%) over a five-year horizon, below the level that needs a closer look. The multiple of 11 times reflects an infrastructure company growing about 5% a year, paying out two thirds of its cash flow and carrying debt of about 5 times EBITDA that cannot rise much further. A multiple above 12 would need faster growth or a lower cost of equity. In the Bear case I use 9.5 times, because slower growth with the same debt would deserve a lower price. ### Sensitivity | DCF growth \ exit multiple | 10x | 11x | 12x | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% | $44.29 | $47.54 | $50.79 | | 5.0% | $46.72 | $50.21 | $53.70 | | 6.5% | $49.28 | $53.03 | $56.78 | | Cost of equity \ exit multiple | 10x | 11x | 12x | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7.5% | $48.69 | $52.35 | $56.01 | | 8.5% | $46.72 | $50.21 | $53.70 | | 9.5% | $44.84 | $48.18 | $51.51 | | One change at a time, primary Base $50.21 | Value | | --- | --- | | DCF per share growth 3.5% / 6.5% a year | $47.54 / $53.03 | | Exit multiple 10x / 12x | $46.72 / $53.70 | | Cost of equity 9.5% / 7.5% | $48.18 / $52.35 | | Dividend growth 2% / 4% a year | $49.88 / $50.54 | | 2026 DCF per share C$5.70 / C$5.90 (guidance ends) | $49.55 / $50.87 | | Exit after 7 years instead of 5 | $51.70 | The cost of equity moves the value by about $2 for each point, which makes this a bond-like stock for valuation purposes. Growth and the exit multiple matter about equally. ## Secondary valuation: EV/EBITDA after all claims The second method values the whole enterprise at a multiple of 2026 adjusted EBITDA and subtracts the C$120.3 billion of claims. I use 12.5 times for the Base, below today's 13.3 times and below the US and Canadian peers I checked (Kinder Morgan 14.1 times, Williams 17.3 times and TC Energy 16.4 times, from StockAnalysis between October 27 and November 6). The discount reflects Enbridge's higher leverage and slower growth per share. At 12.5 times the equity trades at 10.5 times DCF, a DCF yield of 9.5% and a dividend yield of 6.4%, which at an 8.5% cost of equity assumes only 2.1% a year of long-term growth, below the 3% dividend raises and below the 5% target. The Bear uses 11 times and the Bull 13.5 times, with EBITDA 1% below and above the guidance midpoint of C$20.5 billion. | Case | EV / 2026 EBITDA | 2026 EBITDA, C$ bn | Enterprise value, C$ bn | Claims, C$ bn | Value per share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bear | 11.0x | 20.30 | 223.2 | 120.3 | C$46.17 ($32.74) | | Base | 12.5x | 20.50 | 256.2 | 120.3 | C$60.98 ($43.25) | | Bull | 13.5x | 20.70 | 279.5 | 120.3 | C$71.42 ($50.65) | | EV / EBITDA \ net debt | C$106.4 bn | C$109.4 bn | C$112.4 bn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11.5x | $37.68 | $36.72 | $35.77 | | 12.5x | $44.20 | $43.25 | $42.29 | | 13.5x | $50.72 | $49.77 | $48.81 | Each half turn of the multiple moves the value by about $3.26 a share, and each C$3 billion of net debt by $0.96. The pending acquisitions would add about C$4.3 billion of net debt at once, which would cut this value by about $1.36 if their EBITDA did not arrive with them. It will, but the amount is not disclosed, so I treat it as a gap. ## Cross-check against dividend history A plain dividend model, where the price equals next year's dividend divided by the cost of equity minus growth, gives $51.53 at 3% dividend growth, $47.01 at 2.5% and $56.97 at 3.5%. It shares the dividend path with the primary method, so it confirms the order of magnitude and is not an independent test. The growth-adjusted check is not useful here: the price is about 22.8 times my estimate of 2026 adjusted earnings of C$2.98 (nine months plus a fourth quarter equal to last year's C$0.88). Divided by the 5% growth target that is a ratio of 4.6, but earnings per share for a company with this much interest and depreciation say little about the cash it can pay out. ## Valuation triangulation | Method | Bear | Base | Bull | Weight | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Distributions plus exit | $40.88 | $50.21 | $56.95 | 65% | | EV/EBITDA after all claims | $32.74 | $43.25 | $50.65 | 35% | | Gap between methods | 22.1% | 14.9% | 11.7% | | | Adopted | $38.03 | $47.77 | $54.74 | | The two methods differ by 14.9% at the Base, inside the 20% limit. The Bear gap of 22.1% is larger because the EV/EBITDA method applies a lower multiple on top of the debt. The methods share one driver, the path of EBITDA and DCF, so their agreement does not make me more confident. The primary method carries 65% because it measures what shareholders actually receive, and the secondary 35% as a test of the claims bridge. | Base case, C$ | Enterprise value, C$ bn | Equity per share | EV / 2026 EBITDA | Price / 2026 DCF | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Distributions plus exit | 278.1 | 70.79 | 13.6x | 12.2x | | EV/EBITDA at 12.5x | 256.2 | 60.98 | 12.5x | 10.5x | | Market at $48.22 | 271.9 | 67.99 | 13.3x | 11.7x | On a common basis the two methods value the same business at 13.6 times and 12.5 times 2026 EBITDA. The difference is the multiple and the growth funded by debt, not a different treatment of net debt. The probability-weighted value with 25% Bear, 50% Base and 25% Bull is $47.08, which is 2.4% below the price. The two methods span $43.25 to $50.21 in the Base, and the adopted $47.77 sits inside that range. ## What is the market already pricing in? | Measure at $48.22 | Value | | --- | --- | | Market value of common shares | $107.5 billion (C$151.5 billion) | | Enterprise value, with preferred shares and minorities | $192.8 billion (C$271.9 billion) | | Times 2026 guided adjusted EBITDA (midpoint) | 13.3x | | Times 2027 Base adjusted EBITDA (5% growth) | 12.6x | | Price over 2026 DCF per share of C$5.80 | 11.7x (DCF yield 8.5%) | | Dividend yield on C$3.88 | 5.7% | | Exit multiple that earns 8.5% a year, 5% growth | 10.4x DCF | | DCF per share growth that earns 8.5% a year, 11x exit | 3.9% a year | | Return the Base cash flows give at this price | 9.5% a year | The market is pricing something close to the company's own plan. A buyer at $48.22 earns 8.5% a year if cash flow per share grows 3.9% a year and the stock sells at 11 times, or if growth is 5% and the multiple settles at 10.4 times. That is neither a bargain nor a stretch, and it means the growth that matters is per share, after interest and new shares. I did not use options data: the latest implied volatility I could find, 19.2%, is from May 29, 2026 and says nothing about today. ## Bear, base and bull scenarios | Case | DCF per share 2031, C$ | Exit price 2031, C$ | Value (primary / secondary) | Adopted value | Versus price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bear | 6.56 | 62.34 | $40.88 / $32.74 | $38.03 | -21.1% | | Base | 7.40 | 81.43 | $50.21 / $43.25 | $47.77 | -0.9% | | Bull | 7.95 | 95.36 | $56.95 / $50.65 | $54.74 | +13.5% | - **Bear:** DCF per share grows 2.5% a year, close to 2023 to 2026, because new borrowing and some new shares absorb the EBITDA growth. The dividend rises 2% a year and the exit multiple is 9.5 times. Enbridge keeps paying; it just does not compound. - **Base:** 2026 DCF per share of C$5.80, then 5% a year as the projects placed in service earn their returns, a 3% dividend raise and an exit at 11 times. - **Bull:** 6.5% growth as the backlog converts and the C$10 billion to C$20 billion of new project target through 2027 is met, a 3.5% dividend raise and an exit at 12 times. The Bear sits 21% below the price and the Bull 14% above it, so the range leans slightly to the downside. The exchange rate also matters for a US shareholder: at C$1.39 per dollar the Base is $48.46 and at C$1.43 it is $47.10, a swing of about 1.4% either way. | Bought at $48.22, held 5 years | Return a year | | --- | --- | | Base, exit at 11 times DCF | 9.5% | | Base, if today's 11.7x multiple did not change | 10.7% | | Bear | 4.5% | | Bull | 12.6% | These returns are my arithmetic, not forecasts. They include the dividends, about 6.2% of the price a year on average, and the exit price in 2031. The gap between the first two rows, about 1.2 points a year, is what the assumed multiple decline costs. ## How the buy price is set The required margin of safety follows the confidence grade, and grade C starts at 42.5%. I add nothing: leverage, the funding gap and rate sensitivity are in the Bear case, the cost of equity and the confidence score, and I do not charge them a second time. $47.77 times 0.575 is **$27.47**. On the primary method alone it would be $28.87, on the secondary $24.87. At $27.47 the dividend yield would be 10.0% and the stock would trade at 10.1 times EBITDA. That is far below the 52-week low of $45.03, so I do not expect the buy price to arrive without a market event. I report it because the rule is the same for every analysis on this site, not because I expect it. If you prefer a return target, the price at which the Base earns 10% a year is $47.20 and 11% a year is $45.33. I did not apply either as a limit; the margin of safety is the binding one. To justify buying at $48.22 with a 42.5% margin the Base would have to be $83.86, which not even the Bull supports. | Entry price | Base return a year over 5 years | | --- | --- | | $27.47 | 24.4% | | $40.00 | 14.2% | | $45.33 | 11.0% | | $48.22 | 9.5% | | $52.00 | 7.7% | For an existing holder the price is at the Base and a hold, and I would review a holding above the Bull value of $54.74. One timing point: the next dividend of C$0.97 (about $0.69) goes ex on November 13, so the price will open that much lower without anything having changed. The value falls by the same amount. ## Dividend and capital return The dividend is C$0.97 a quarter, C$3.88 a year (about $2.75), a 5.7% yield at the current price, raised about 3% for 2026 (the 31st consecutive increase). It takes about 67% of my DCF estimate for the year, which leaves C$4.3 billion to reinvest. Enbridge does not buy back shares; it issued them in September. The dividend is covered by cash flow, but the growth spending beyond it depends on lenders and new shareholders. Payments come in Canadian dollars, so a US holder is exposed to the exchange rate, and Canadian withholding tax applies to non-residents under the treaty rules for their country. ## Reasons to own Enbridge - Contracted and regulated cash flow: guidance has been met 20 years in a row, and the Mainline has been full enough to apportion capacity. - A dividend that has risen 31 years in a row and is covered with about C$1.92 a share of DCF left after the payout. - A C$38 billion backlog, with over C$3 billion of gas transmission projects placed in service in the third quarter alone. - Exposure to growing gas demand through pipelines, storage, the LNG supply chain and power contracts for data centers. - Partners (KKR, Apollo) are funding part of the growth at asset level, which reduces the need for new shares. ## What could go wrong? - **Funding the growth:** a C$6 billion yearly gap between retained cash and investment means more debt or more shares. Each C$3 billion of new shares is about 2% more shares. - **Leverage:** 5.1 times debt to EBITDA is above the company's target. Higher rates or a ratings move would raise financing costs and could force asset sales. - **Interest rates:** each point on the cost of equity moves the value by about $2, or 4%. - **Currency:** earnings and dividends are largely in Canadian dollars; a weaker Canadian dollar lowers the US value. - **Regulation and rate cases:** the Ohio utility has a stipulated 9.59% return on equity and a decision is expected by the first quarter of 2027. - **Execution and approvals:** the Tallgrass purchase still needs regulatory approval, and project costs can overrun. - **Accounting basis:** the debt inside joint ventures is not in net debt, which makes the EBITDA multiple look lower than it is. ## Management execution Management has hit its financial guidance for 20 years, grew EBITDA 7% in 2025 and placed C$5 billion of projects in service that year. The weaker side is per share growth: the company's own 2023 to 2026 outlook was 7% to 9% EBITDA growth but only nearly 3% a year in DCF per share, and shares rose 3.4% in two years. Leverage went from 4.8 to 5.1 times in nine months. The company is open about it, calling the ratio slightly above target, but the September equity raise shows leverage has a ceiling. I score capital allocation at 7.5 of 10: strong execution, with the cost of buying growth showing up in the share count. ## Stock Analyza scorecard | Business quality | Score | | --- | --- | | Moat and pricing power | 15/20 | | Return on capital over its cost | 5/20 | | Balance sheet and resilience | 7.5/15 | | Cash and earnings quality | 11.25/15 | | Growth and reinvestment runway | 11.25/15 | | Management and capital allocation | 7.5/10 | | Dilution and governance | 2.5/5 | | Total | 60/100 | Business quality is solid but not high, because Enbridge earns about 5% on its invested capital, close to or below its cost of capital, which is typical of regulated and contracted infrastructure. The moat, the cash flow quality and the backlog are the strong part. The balance sheet and the share count pull the score down. | Valuation | Score | | --- | --- | | Discount to Base value (-0.9%) | 25/50 | | Price against the Bear value (-21.1%) | 7.5/30 | | What the price implies (the central case) | 10/20 | | Total | 42.5/100 | The valuation score sits in the middle because the price is on the Base. The adverse case is 21.1% below the price, which falls in the second-lowest band; a drop 1.1 points smaller would have scored 15 of 30 instead of 7.5. ## Confidence score | Area | Score | | --- | --- | | Historical data and sources (price is live, not a close) | 3.75/5 | | Accounting and ownership (joint venture debt, hybrids, pending deals) | 2.5/5 | | Evidence for the forecast (5% target above the recent record) | 3.75/5 | | Model construction (exit share 76%, shared drivers) | 3.75/5 | | Independent checks (dividend model, peers, reverse test) | 3.75/5 | | Total | 17.5/25, grade C | The raw score of 17.5 is half a point under grade B, so the grade is C and the margin of safety 42.5%. The biggest limits are the joint venture debt, the pending acquisitions and the live price. If the fourth quarter and the 2027 guidance support the Base, the score would reach B, the margin of safety would fall to 30% and the buy price would rise to $33.44. ## What I would watch from here ### Green - Fourth quarter DCF per share of C$1.46 or more (the path to C$5.80) - 2027 guidance with DCF per share growth of 5% or more - Debt to EBITDA back to 4.8 times by the end of 2026 - Tallgrass and Laramie closed without new shares ### Yellow - 2027 DCF per share guided to grow 3% to 4% - Debt to EBITDA still above 5 times at year end - The Ohio decision below the stipulated 9.59% return ### Red - Another equity issue within a year of September's - 2027 DCF per share guided below the 2026 midpoint of C$5.90 - Debt to EBITDA above 5.3 times - Fourth quarter DCF per share below C$1.36 (below the low end of guidance) The fourth quarter report and the 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, are the first real test of whether the 5% plan holds per share. ## The three most important thesis breakers 1. DCF per share keeps growing at 2.5% to 3% because borrowing and new shares absorb the EBITDA growth. The Base becomes the Bear. 2. Leverage stays above 5 times and the company issues shares again, so the funding gap is solved at the shareholder's expense. 3. Canadian yields rise and the multiple of DCF falls toward 10 times, taking about 7% off the value even if cash flow is on plan. ## Stress test and independent check The model was built from the third quarter release, the 10-Q for September 30, 2026 and the fourth quarter 2025 release. The primary value, the secondary value, the triangulation, the buy price, the reverse tests, the sensitivity grids and the returns were recalculated in a separate script, and the numbers in the tables come from it. | Input | Status | | --- | --- | | Revenue, EBITDA, DCF, shares, debt, preferred shares, minorities, dividend, guidance | Q3 2026 release and 10-Q, as reported | | 2024 and 2025 results, medium-term outlook | Fourth quarter 2025 release, as reported | | DCF per share, claims, run-rate funding gap, returns | My arithmetic | | Growth, exit multiples, cost of equity, EV/EBITDA multiples, exchange rate | My assumptions | | Peer multiples | Aggregator data from October 27 to November 6, not rechecked | | Price | $48.22 live regular session quote on November 12, not a closing price | The weakest point is the 5% growth in DCF per share. Nine months of 2026 show 2.3%, 2025 was 2.7%, and the Base needs more than that for five years. My conservative choices are an exit multiple below today's, a 2026 DCF below the guidance midpoint, and a secondary multiple below the peers. The generous one is accepting the company's 5% plan. The strongest bull argument is that EBITDA growth from projects already in service has not fully reached per share cash flow yet. The strongest bear argument is that three years of data say the company has to borrow and issue shares to produce it. ## Final verdict: hold at $48.22 Enbridge is the kind of business where the next year is easy to predict and the next five depend on one number: how much of its EBITDA growth reaches a single share. The market has priced that at roughly the company's own 5% plan, and the dividend yield and growth add up to about 9.5% a year, which is fair and not cheap. **Verdict: HOLD at $48.22, watchlist for new money. Base $47.77, -0.9% against the price, Bear $38.03, Bull $54.74, Confidence C (17.5/25). Required margin of safety 42.5%, maximum buy price $27.47, range $24.87 to $28.87 under the two methods.** The buy zone can come to the stock in two ways: a price near $27.47, or evidence that DCF per share is growing 5% a year with leverage back near 4.8 times, which would raise confidence and lift the buy price to about $33.44. The second is the more realistic one to wait for. ## More analyses on Patreon This analysis is free. Premium members get every in-depth analysis, the full archive and a vote on which stocks get analyzed next: https://www.patreon.com/stockanalyza ## Sources Primary sources are Enbridge's [third quarter 2026 results](https://finviz.com/news/418260/enbridge-reports-strong-third-quarter-results-places-over-3-billion-of-gas-transmission-projects-into-service-and-reaffirms-2026-financial-guidance) (November 6, 2026), the [10-Q for the quarter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000895728/000119312526450714/enb-20260930.htm) and the [fourth quarter 2025 results](https://www.enbridge.com/media-center/news/details?id=123871&lang=en). The near-term and medium-term growth outlook is as reported by [Zacks](https://www.metatrader.com/ru/news/1187161-enbridge-q4-earnings-surpass-estimates-revenues-increase). The balance sheet and the share count come from the 10-Q; the end-2025 cash figure from the same Zacks summary. Return on invested capital is from [ROIC.ai](https://www.roic.ai/quote/ENBRF). Prices: the 52-week range and the November 6 close from [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/quote?stockTicker=ENB), the live $48.22 quote from the XTB platform. Exchange rate: [TMGM](https://www.tmgm.com/en-eu/analysis/market-news/article/canadian-dollar-loses-ground-even-as-the-us-dollar-index-falls-202611091830) and [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/currency/news/598182). Peer multiples: StockAnalysis pages for [Kinder Morgan](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/kmi/statistics/), [Williams](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wmb/statistics/) and [TC Energy](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/trp/statistics/). Implied volatility: [Options Analysis Suite](https://www.optionsanalysissuite.com/stocks/enb/probability). Broker price targets and ratings are not used. **Disclaimer.** This analysis is provided solely for research and educational purposes. It is not personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Values are estimates, not forecasts or trading instructions. Pipeline and utility stocks can move with interest rates, regulation, project costs and the Canadian dollar, and Enbridge carries leverage, execution and funding risks. Investors can lose part or all of their invested capital. Method: Master Investment Analysis Framework v4.3. Approach: dividends plus an exit price at the Canadian cost of equity (8.5%), cross-checked with enterprise value over EBITDA after preferred shares and minorities. Confidence: C/17.5. Data checks: passed with warnings. Open data gaps: joint venture debt behind adjusted EBITDA, a closing price for November 12, EBITDA of the pending Tallgrass and Laramie purchases, current options-implied volatility.