# TransMedics: earnings look cheap on screens, but owner cash yields only 1.7% TMDX, Nasdaq. Published October 20, 2026. Price is an intraday trade at 4:54 pm Prague time (10:54 am New York) on October 20, 2026, during the regular session; the October 19 close was $71.60. ## Verdict: HOLD at $72.22 At $72.22 the shares trade 4.9% above my Base value of $68.82, a downside of 4.7%. That looks close to fair value, but the range is wide (Bear $25.87, Bull $108.70) and my two methods disagree by 30%: an exit multiple on 2028 EBITDA gives $81.74, a ten-year cash flow model gives $60.20. Owner cash after share-based pay yields 1.7% at today's price. Confidence is C and the required margin of safety is 45%, which puts the maximum buy price at $37.85. Hold for holders, watchlist for new money. Third quarter results are not in this analysis. - Bear value: $25.87 - Base value: $68.82 - Bull value: $108.70 - Downside to base value: -4.7% - Maximum buy price: $37.85 - Required margin of safety: 45% - Owner cash yield at $72.22: 1.7% - Price to trailing sales: 3.75 times - Modeled annual return to end of 2028: 7.8% - Business quality: 64/100 - Valuation score: 38/100 - Confidence: 13/25, grade C On trailing twelve-month net income of $151.7 million, TransMedics trades at about 16.5 times earnings, and any screener will call that cheap. Most of it is not repeatable. In 2025 the company released a tax valuation allowance worth about $103 million, and if I tax the trailing pre-tax profit of $72.6 million at a normal 24%, earnings are $55.1 million, so the shares sit at about 45 times. The number that matters more is owner cash: after $66.9 million of capital spending and $37.1 million of stock-based compensation (SBC, shares handed to staff instead of cash), the business produced $42.0 million over the last twelve months. That is a 1.7% yield on a $2.5 billion market value. At $72.22, an intraday trade at 4:54 pm Prague time (10:54 am New York) on October 20, 2026, the shares trade 4.9% above my triangulated Base value of **$68.82**, a downside of 4.7%. The Bear value is $25.87, 64.2% below the price, and the Bull value of $108.70 is 50.5% above it. Confidence is grade C (13/25), the required margin of safety (MOS) is 45%, and the maximum buy price is **$37.85**. The price is near my Base but far above the buy ceiling, so the verdict is Hold. Valuation route: a listed medical-technology company that sells organ transplant systems with procedure-linked consumables, clinical services and its own aircraft and logistics. Primary method: a discounted resale multiple (18 times EBITDA) on 2028 earnings. Secondary method: an independent ten-year model of cash left for owners after all investment and SBC. Weights are 40% and 60%. Classification: quality growth, with no compounder premium. ## What TransMedics is TransMedics makes the Organ Care System (OCS), which keeps a donor heart, lung or liver functioning outside the body between donor and recipient. The company does not only sell a device. It sells a procedure: a per-case disposable set, clinical staff and, increasingly, its own aircraft and logistics to move the organ. FDA regulatory support exists for the commercial heart, lung and liver systems. Kidney, the next-generation system and wider Europe are opportunities, and I do not add a separate pipeline value for them on top of the growth already in my scenarios. Revenue went from $241.6 million in 2023 to $441.5 million in 2024 and $605.5 million in 2025, a 58.3% compound rate over two years. In the first half of 2026 it grew 20.9%. That growth is concentrated: US liver-related revenue was $287.0 million in the first half, 78.9% of group revenue, against $59.2 million for US heart and $4.5 million for US lung. Everything else, including international liver, was about 3.6% (my arithmetic). A multi-organ product list is not yet a multi-organ earnings mix. The business is changing shape. A high-margin product (Q2 product gross margin 77.0%) is being wrapped in a service operation (Q2 service gross margin 35.0%) and a growing asset base: a property finance lease of $347.7 million, aircraft, research spending and, since July 1, 2026, a strategic investment in PAD whose price was not disclosed in the filings I read. The competition is credible and different in method: OrganOx (owned by Terumo), XVIVO and Paragonix (owned by Getinge). ## The latest results | Latest reported period | Result | | --- | --- | | Second quarter 2026 revenue | $189.95 million, adjusted EPS $0.44 | | First half revenue | $363.9 million, up 20.9% from $300.9 million | | First half GAAP operating income | $37.0 million, against $64.0 million a year earlier | | First half GAAP operating margin | 10.2%, against 21.3% | | Q2 gross margin, product / service | 77.0% / 35.0% | | First half cash from operations / capital spending | $41.8 million / $43.7 million | | Unrestricted cash, June 30 | $472.7 million | | 2026 revenue guidance, reaffirmed September 10 | $737 million to $757 million, excluding PAD | Revenue grew by a fifth and the operating margin fell by more than half. Management points to planned research and logistics spending, and some of that is a choice, but it is not free. A caution about screens: an AI summary on a broker page labels the $189.95 million and $0.44 as third quarter results. They are second quarter figures, and no third quarter result existed when I finished this analysis. ## Which cash to value EBITDA is the usual tool for a medical device company, but it leaves out most of what TransMedics is spending on. I anchor on owner cash: cash from operations, less all capital spending, less SBC. I count SBC as a real cost and do not add it back, then do not charge it a second time as future dilution. | $ million, twelve months to June 2026 | Amount | | --- | --- | | Cash from operations | 145.9 | | Less cash capital spending | -66.9 | | Reported free cash flow | 79.0 | | Less SBC (cash flow statement total) | -37.1 | | Owner cash | 42.0 | | Owner cash as share of reported net income ($151.7m) | 27.7% | | Owner cash as share of tax-normalized earnings ($55.1m) | 76.1% | The twelve-month figures are my sum of the 2025 annual report, minus the first half of 2025, plus the first half of 2026. The second ratio is the fairer one, because the reported net income is inflated by the tax release. Even so, history is not stable enough to extrapolate: | Period, $ million | Free cash flow | Owner cash after SBC | | --- | --- | --- | | 2023 | -164.9 | -184.7 | | 2024 | -80.9 | -114.2 | | 2025 | 133.6 | 96.7 | | Twelve months to June 2026 | 79.0 | 42.0 | Cash turned negative again in the first half of 2026 (owner cash of -$20.5 million against +$34.3 million a year earlier). The three-year average of free cash flow is -$37.4 million, which mixes a build-out with a much larger business, so I read it as a warning, not as earning power. The consensus I could see expects 2026 free cash flow of -$9.7 million against $133.6 million in 2025. ## Shares, debt and the lease | Item | Amount | | --- | --- | | Common shares, July 30, 2026 (10-Q cover) | 34.675 million | | Market value of common at $72.22 | $2,504.2 million | | Economic share count used per share (my estimate) | 36.0 million | | Convertible notes, due June 1, 2028 (principal) | $460.0 million | | Bank loan (principal) | $60.0 million | | Property finance lease | $347.7 million | | Less unrestricted cash, June 30 | -$472.7 million | | Net financial claims | $395.0 million | The 36.0 million share count adds an allowance of 1.3 million for staff awards to the 34.675 million common shares. The convertible stays in debt at its full $460 million principal, so its 4.894 million underlying shares stay out of the count; mixing the two would count the notes twice. The conversion price is near $94, and capped calls extend protection to about $141.88. Restricted cash of $18.4 million is not counted, and operating lease liabilities of $6.1 million stay inside operating costs. The finance lease is the item a simple screen misses. It is a debt-like claim of $347.7 million, worth $9.66 a share, and I deduct it once. The filings show a purchase option for $374.6 million through the end of 2027, and my return model assumes it is exercised with a matching loan. The first call on cash is therefore not the shareholder: it is the building, then the 2028 notes. Two bridge items are estimates and say so. I could not find a verified October cash balance or the PAD price, so my Base assumes the PAD payment is matched by the value acquired and sets the net effect to zero. Every $100 million of adverse net effect would cost $2.78 a share. ## The primary valuation: a resale multiple on 2028 EBITDA Base revenue for 2026 is $747 million, the midpoint of guidance, then growth of 18% in 2027 and 16% in 2028. That gives 2028 revenue of $1,022.5 million. At a 17% EBIT margin, EBIT is $173.8 million, and adding depreciation at 4.5% of sales ($46.0 million) gives EBITDA of $219.8 million, against $118.0 million over the last twelve months. A buyer at the end of 2028 paying 18 times that EBITDA would pay $3,957 million. That multiple is my assumption for a still-growing franchise, not a peer median. I discount the exit value and the interim owner cash back to October 20, 2026 at 10% (a 2.197 year transition, with year-end timing), subtract the $395.0 million of net claims and divide by 36.0 million shares. The result is a primary Base of **$81.74**. | Exit multiple on 2028 EBITDA | 14 times | 16 times | 18 times | 20 times | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Primary value per share | $61.93 | $71.84 | $81.74 | $91.65 | The multiple matters as much as any operating input. At about 16.1 times, the primary value falls to the current price. ## The secondary valuation: ten years of owner cash As an independent test I ignore the resale multiple and ask what the cash flows are worth. Revenue growth fades from 18% and 16% to 4% by 2036, the EBIT margin climbs from 14% to 24%, tax is 24%, capital spending is 6.5% of sales and every extra dollar of revenue ties up 15 cents of working capital. The terminal value reinvests part of profit to pay for growth (2.5% growth at a 15% return on new capital), so it does not assume growth is free. | Base case | Revenue, $m | EBIT margin | Owner cash, $m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2027 | 881.5 | 14% | 56.0 | | 2028 | 1,022.5 | 17% | 90.5 | | 2030 | 1,305.5 | 21% | 161.3 | | 2033 | 1,659.5 | 24% | 253.2 | | 2036 | 1,920.9 | 24% | 300.9 | The enterprise value comes to $2,562.3 million, of which 58.9% is terminal value, and the value per share is **$60.20**. Sensitivity to the discount rate is large, because so much of the cash arrives late: | DCF value per share | Growth 2.0% | Growth 2.5% | Growth 3.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Discount rate 8% | $87.25 | $90.79 | $95.00 | | Discount rate 10% | $58.96 | $60.20 | $61.61 | | Discount rate 12% | $42.29 | $42.75 | $43.26 | Both methods start from the same revenue path, early margins, tax, claims and share count, so their agreement would not prove that the growth is right. The cash flow method does test one thing the multiple cannot: whether the spending survives. ## A price check against history The 2025 annual report shows a June 2025 price of $134.01. The $72.22 price is 46.1% lower, but a share price drawdown is not a cheap multiple. I could not build a clean multi-year EV to EBITDA history that treats the new lease consistently, so history gets no bullish weight. At today's price the trailing multiples are 3.75 times sales and about 25 times EBITDA, and the free cash flow yield is 3.2% before SBC and 1.7% after it. The growth-adjusted check is not much help. Consensus adjusted EPS is $1.51 for 2026 and $2.25 for 2027, which would be 47.8 times and 32.1 times at $72.22, and a PEG of 0.65 on 49% growth. The 2026 numbers I confirmed. I could not verify the 2027 estimate against its source, so the 32.1 times and the 0.65 are unconfirmed, and in any case the PEG compares recovering earnings against a low base. It sets nothing in my valuation. ## Triangulating the two values | Value per share today | Bear | Base | Bull | Weight | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Exit multiple on 2028 EBITDA (18 times) | $43.26 | $81.74 | $107.48 | 40% | | Ten-year owner cash flow model | $14.28 | $60.20 | $109.51 | 60% | | Triangulated value | $25.87 | $68.82 | $108.70 | 100% | The Base methods differ by 30.3% (difference over midpoint), above the 30% level at which I lower Confidence and flag the result. I gave the cash method 60% because cash conversion after the aircraft, the building and research is the binding constraint, and the multiple only works if the franchise keeps growing profitably past 2028. These weights are a judgment. The unweighted Base band of $60.20 to $81.74 is the honest picture, and the weighted $68.82 sits inside it. The Bear is the part to read carefully. An 18 times multiple on weak Bear EBITDA still gives $43.26, while the cash model gives $14.28. A resale multiple does not protect you from poor cash conversion, and $25.87 is not a floor. ## What the price already assumes | Change needed to match $72.22 | Needed | My Base | | --- | --- | --- | | 2028 EBIT margin, with the 18 times multiple and revenue fixed | 14.80% | 17.00% | | Which means 2028 EBITDA of about | $197.3 million | $219.8 million | | Exit multiple, with my operating path fixed | 16.08 times | 18.00 times | | EBIT margin in every year of the cash flow model | +3.45 points, ending at 27.45% | 24.00% in 2036 | These are separate tests, not one combined requirement. The primary method says the price is supported without the full margin recovery, if you accept a generous resale multiple. The cash flow model says the price needs a better long-run margin than my Base. A buyer at $72.22 is betting that growth stays profitable and the capital burden stays contained at once. ## Bear, Base and Bull | | Bear | Base | Bull | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 revenue, excluding PAD | $727m | $747m | $757m | | Growth 2027 / 2028 | 10% / 8% | 18% / 16% | 24% / 22% | | EBIT margin 2027 / 2028 / mature | 10% / 11% / 15% | 14% / 17% / 24% | 16% / 20% / 28% | | Capital spending, share of sales | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | | Terminal growth / return on new capital | 2.0% / 12% | 2.5% / 15% | 3.0% / 18% | | Net bridge adjustment | -$50m | 0 | 0 | | Primary value | $43.26 | $81.74 | $107.48 | | Cash flow model value | $14.28 | $60.20 | $109.51 | | Value per share today | $25.87 | $68.82 | $108.70 | | Against $72.22 | -64.2% | -4.7% | +50.5% | All three cases use the same 18 times multiple and 10% discount rate, so the Bear does not also cut the multiple for the same operating disappointment. The Bear combines slower transplant growth, weaker margins, heavier capital spending and a $50 million permanent leak in the bridge. The Bull needs wider adoption and real operating leverage. Neither carries a probability. For orientation only, weights of 25%, 50% and 25% give $68.05. ## Sensitivity and the one case that flips the verdict | Case | Primary | Cash flow model | Triangulated | Entry at 45% MOS | Buy at $72.22? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Base, 10% discount rate | $81.74 | $60.20 | $68.82 | $37.85 | No | | 8% discount rate | $85.52 | $90.79 | $88.68 | $48.78 | No | | 12% discount rate | $78.17 | $42.75 | $56.92 | $31.31 | No | | Full Bull path | $107.48 | $109.51 | $108.70 | $59.78 | No | | Full Bull path and 8% discount rate | $112.31 | $166.90 | $145.06 | $79.79 | Yes, conditional | Other tests move Base within a narrow band. A margin path 2 points higher or lower gives $76.59 or $61.05. Capital spending 1 point of sales higher or lower gives $67.27 or $70.37. A $100 million worse bridge gives $66.04, and a 10% extra share claim with no new cash gives $62.56. Using consensus revenue for 2026 and 2027 ($742.2 million and $874.7 million) gives $68.21. Cutting every future cash flow by 20% or 40% gives $60.29 or $51.77 with the primary value held fixed. The verdict is not robust to everything. If you believe the Bull path and a lower 8% discount rate together, the entry price is $79.79, above the market, and the call turns to a conditional Buy. I do not use that as the central case, because cash conversion, liver concentration, funding and the open inventory control weakness do not support it. A stock with a beta near 3 on screens does not deserve an 8% rate either; the 12% case ($56.92) is the other side of that test. ## How the buy price is set Confidence C calls for a margin of safety of 35% to 50%. I use 45%: October cash, the PAD terms and the split between replacement and expansion spending are not verified, and I do not add a second penalty for risks already in the numbers (liver concentration, financing, method disagreement). The maximum buy price is $68.82 x (1 - 45%) = **$37.85**. Four numbers answer different questions: what the shares are worth ($68.82), the return from buying at $72.22 and holding to the end of 2028 (7.8% a year), the price that gives a 12% annual return ($66.35) and the price that leaves a 45% margin of safety ($37.85). The return path assumes no distributions, notes refinanced at par in 2028, the building bought at the end of 2027 with a matching loan, and an end-2028 sale value of $85.12 a share. It is a future price illustration, not today's value, and it leaves out fees and personal taxes. ## The dividend There is none, and I assume none. Cash goes to the facility, the 2028 notes and growth. Owner cash is not a sign of a coming buyback or payout, so TransMedics does not serve an income investor. ## Reasons to own - **A product with a clinical moat.** Familiarity with the OCS, FDA support for three organs and a delivery network that competitors do not match are the reasons transplant centers use it. - **Repeat revenue from each procedure.** Consumables and clinical services recur with transplant volume, even without subscription contracts. - **High product margins.** At 77.0% product gross margin, operating leverage is real if scale arrives without matching spending. - **Optionality beyond liver.** Heart, lung, Europe and kidney could widen the base, although I give none of them full credit. - **A lower price could change the answer.** If owner cash stabilizes and the larger asset base earns its cost, an entry well below today's price would have real asymmetry. ## Main risks - **Liver dependence.** About 79% of first half revenue is US liver. A slowdown in one franchise would reach the whole company. - **Investment-heavy growth.** Revenue can rise while owner cash does not, which is what happened in the first half of 2026. - **Facility financing and the 2028 notes.** The $460 million convertible matures on June 1, 2028 and the property purchase option runs to the end of 2027. Cash is not all surplus, and refinancing rates are not fixed. - **Controls.** The company reported a material weakness over inventory movements, not yet declared remediated in the latest filing. - **Competition and regulation.** OrganOx, XVIVO and Paragonix can pressure price and share, and new indications need approval before they count. ## Management execution | Year | Initial revenue guidance | Reported revenue | | --- | --- | --- | | 2023 | $138 million to $145 million (raised during the year) | $241.6 million | | 2024 | $360 million to $370 million | $441.5 million | | 2025 | $530 million to $552 million | $605.5 million | Initial revenue guidance has been beaten every year. That says nothing about EPS or cash, and the 2023 comparison is clouded by a changed logistics perimeter. Fernando Araujo became CFO on September 21, 2026, in the middle of a property purchase and a note maturity. That is a transition, not a warning, but it adds a variable. I score management credibility 12/20: revenue delivery 4/5, capital discipline 2/5, disclosure and controls 2/5, strategic execution 4/5. ## Stock Analyza scorecard | Business quality | Points | Maximum | | --- | --- | --- | | Moat and pricing power | 16 | 20 | | Return versus cost of capital | 10 | 20 | | Balance sheet and resilience | 9 | 15 | | Earnings and cash quality | 8 | 15 | | Growth and reinvestment runway | 13 | 15 | | Management and capital allocation | 6 | 10 | | Dilution and governance | 2 | 5 | | Total | 64 | 100 | On the sector scorecard TransMedics scores 6/12, which is quality growth: revenue growth is excellent, but free cash flow per share has no stable history and earnings are concentrated in one franchise. The valuation score is 38/100 (overvalued on a risk-adjusted entry basis): 16/40 for the discount to value, 4/20 for protection against the Bear, 4/15 for agreement between methods, 5/10 for history, 6/10 for what the price implies and 3/5 for data quality. A good business can be a low-scoring purchase. ## Confidence score | Component | Points of 5 | | --- | --- | | Data quality and provenance | 3 | | Business predictability | 3 | | Valuation robustness | 2 | | Accounting transparency | 3 | | Scenario dispersion | 2 | | Total, grade C (13 to 17) | 13 of 25 | ## What I would watch from here ### Supports the thesis - 2026 revenue inside or above the $737 million to $757 million range, with owner cash positive and improving over rolling twelve months. - GAAP operating margin moving toward 14% in 2027. - A funded plan for the property purchase and the 2028 notes, and formal confirmation that the inventory control weakness is fixed. ### Watch closely - 2027 growth between 10% and 18%, or operating margin between 10% and 14%. - Owner cash near zero, or capital spending above plan with no margin gain. - PAD or facility details still incomplete, or new share issuance above my allowance. ### Breaks the thesis - 2026 revenue below $737 million or guidance withdrawn; growth below 10% for two quarters. - Owner cash at or below zero on two rolling twelve-month readings while revenue keeps growing. - No funded plan for the 2028 notes six months before maturity, a repeated control deficiency, or lasting price and share loss in liver. ## The most important thesis breakers - **Cash conversion.** Growth continues but owner cash does not improve after capital spending, SBC and financing. - **Liver erosion.** Price or share falls in the franchise that supplies four fifths of revenue, with nothing to replace it. - **Funding.** The building, PAD or the 2028 notes need financing on destructive terms. ## Stress test and independent check I rebuilt the model from its stated inputs with separate code and reproduced: the twelve-month revenue, EBIT, cash flow and owner cash bridges; the net claims of $395.0 million; the annual rows and present values for Bear, Base and Bull; the primary and cash flow values ($81.74 and $60.20 in Base); the 30.3% divergence, the 40/60 blend and $68.82; the buy price of $37.85; the 7.8% return and $66.35 entry; the reverse solves; and the multiple, discount rate, margin and capital spending tables. I found no arithmetic or construction error. Treat that as a check on arithmetic, not on the assumptions. From the company's documents I confirmed the first half 2026 income statement, cash flow and balance sheet figures, the lease and debt balances, the second quarter margins, the guidance range and the CFO change, the annual revenue for 2023 to 2025 and the $134.01 price in June 2025. I could not re-read the US organ split behind the 78.9% liver share, the details of the control weakness, the lease note, or the 2025 tax data in the annual report, so those come from the supplied analysis. Depreciation differs by up to $1.9 million between the cash flow statement and other sources, which would lift the trailing EV to EBITDA from 24.6 to about 25 times. Four further points. Discounting at year-end rather than mid-year is conservative: mid-year timing would give a Base of about $70.97, 3.1% higher and still below the price. The joint Bull and 8% case, at $145.06, sits above the $141.88 capped call ceiling, which leaks about $0.43 a share and moves the entry to $79.55, with the same conclusion. The 2027 consensus figures are behind a paywall. And the price is an intraday trade; the October 19 close was $71.60, 0.9% lower, and the verdict is the same at either. Main data limits: October cash and the PAD terms are not public in the documents I used, the split between replacement and expansion spending is an estimate, and terminal profitability is a model assumption. These are why Confidence is C. ## Final verdict: hold at $72.22 TransMedics has a real clinical product, growth that has beaten guidance three years in a row and a delivery network that is hard to copy. But it is spending more of each dollar to keep growing, the owner cash yield is 1.7%, and the cheap-looking earnings come from a tax release. At $72.22 the price is close to my Base, 91% above the buy ceiling of $37.85, and inside a Bear to Bull range of $25.87 to $108.70. **Verdict: HOLD at $72.22, watchlist for new money. Triangulated Base value $68.82, downside 4.7%, Confidence C (13/25), required margin of safety 45%, maximum buy price $37.85.** For holders this means reviewing position size and risk tolerance, not selling by default, because the gap to Base is small. For new money it means waiting for a much lower price or for owner cash to show up. The product growth is not the open question. The open question is who pays for the planes, the building and the 2028 notes before any of it reaches a shareholder. ## More analyses on Patreon This analysis is free. Premium members get every in-depth analysis, the full archive and a vote on which stocks get analyzed next: https://www.patreon.com/stockanalyza ## Sources Primary sources include TransMedics' [second quarter 2026 quarterly report on Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756262/000119312526332843/tmdx-20260630.htm), the [second quarter 2026 results release](https://investors.transmedics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transmedics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results), the [2025 annual report on Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756262/000119312526067032/tmdx-20251231.htm), the [September 10 release](https://investors.transmedics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transmedics-appoints-fernando-araujo-chief-financial-officer-and) on the new CFO and reaffirmed guidance, the [2025 results release](https://investors.transmedics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transmedics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial), the [2024](https://investors.transmedics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transmedics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial/) and [2023](https://investors.transmedics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transmedics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-financial/) results releases, the [PAD investment release](https://investors.transmedics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/transmedics-group-announces-completion-strategic-investment-pad) and the FDA records for the [OCS Heart](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/recently-approved-devices/organ-care-system-ocs-heart-system-p180051s001), [OCS Liver](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfpma/pma.cfm?id=P200031) and [OCS Lung](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfpma/pma.cfm?id=P160013S002) systems. Consensus revenue and EPS come from a third-party [forecast page](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tmdx/forecast/) and were used only as a cross-check and a robustness test, not as an input to the Base. The reference market price is $72.22, an intraday trade at 4:54 pm Prague time on October 20, 2026 during the regular session. The October 19 close was $71.60 on a [price history page](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tmdx/history/). Per share values use 36.0 million economic shares. Post-June cash and PAD effects, the 2028 margin, the exit multiple, capital spending, the discount rate and the terminal assumptions are analytical estimates, not company guidance. **Disclaimer.** This analysis is provided solely for research and educational purposes. It is not personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Values are estimates, not forecasts or trading instructions. TransMedics is exposed to concentration in one organ franchise, heavy capital spending and financing needs, a material weakness in inventory controls, competition and regulation. Investors can lose part or all of their invested capital. Method: Master Investment Analysis Framework v3.4. Approach: a discounted resale multiple on 2028 EBITDA, cross-checked with a ten-year model of owner cash flow after all investment and stock-based compensation. Confidence: C/13. Data checks: passed with warnings. Conditional research only. Open data gaps: the October cash balance, the PAD terms and the 2027 consensus estimates.