How each stock gets valued

Stock Analyza is an independent research project. Every analysis follows the same framework, so the numbers from one company can be compared with the next.

Who writes it

Stock Analyza is written by a single private investor based in Prague. I am not a licensed investment advisor, broker or portfolio manager. Each analysis is my personal view of what a business is worth, built with the framework below and published with the data behind it, so you can check the numbers yourself.

The process

1. Route the company to its sector framework. A mortgage REIT, a chipmaker and a pipeline company are not valued with the same metrics.
2. Pick the economic metric that fits. Free cash flow for most companies, book value and distributable earnings for mortgage REITs, and other sector equivalents where standard metrics mislead.
3. Value three scenarios. A bear, base and bull case, each with explicit assumptions, using a primary and a secondary valuation method.
4. Triangulate. The methods are weighted into one Bear, Base and Bull Value, plus a probability-weighted expected value.
5. Apply a margin of safety. Riskier and harder-to-forecast businesses require a bigger discount to the Base Value. The result is the maximum buy price.
6. Run an adversarial review. The arithmetic is recomputed independently, and the strongest bull and bear counter-arguments are tested before the verdict is final.

Reading the verdict

Buy means the price is at or below the maximum buy price. Hold means the stock may be below fair value, but not by enough to cover the risk. Sell or avoid means the price already exceeds what the business is likely worth.

A verdict compares the share price with my valuation on the date of the analysis. It is an opinion about value, not an instruction to trade, and it does not change when the price moves after publication.

Each analysis also lists what would change the view: green, yellow and red signals to watch, and the thesis breakers that would invalidate it.

The scores

Business quality (0 to 100) rates moat, returns on capital, balance sheet, earnings quality, growth runway, management and governance. Valuation (0 to 100) rates the discount to fair value, downside protection and how well the methods agree. Confidence (0 to 25, with a letter grade) rates how reliable the forecast is, which drives the required margin of safety.

Free and premium

Selected analyses are free on this site. The complete set of in-depth analyses, the archive and voting on upcoming analyses are available to members on Patreon.

Can't find your ticker? Run your own analysis at home with AI. Educational use only, not investment advice.

Conflicts of interest and personal trading

A valuation is only useful if you know whether the author could profit from it. These rules apply to every analysis on this site and on Patreon.

• Positions are disclosed. If I own a stock I analyze, or hold a short position or options on it, the article says so and states when the position was opened. If an article does not mention a position, I hold none in that stock.
• No trading around publication. I do not buy or sell a stock during the 5 trading days before an analysis of it is published or the 5 trading days after. The same rule applies to every update of an existing analysis.
• No payment from companies. Stock Analyza is not paid by any company it analyzes, does not publish sponsored content and carries no broker affiliate links. Its only income is Patreon memberships.
• Dates are always shown. Every analysis states its publication date and the date of the share price it uses.

Disclaimer

All content on this site is provided solely for research and educational purposes. It is not personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Valuations rely on assumptions and third-party data that may prove incorrect. Past results do not predict future returns. Investors can lose part or all of their invested capital. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Stock Analyza is not affiliated with any company it analyzes and does not receive compensation from them.

Last updated September 28, 2026.